In November 2019, Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled an unprecedented prototype: a bulletproof, cyberpunk-inspired electric truck. He has called it his road-legal futuristic tank and named it the Tesla Cybertruck. The styling--straight out of 1980s SciFi movies--drew lots of criticism. But the polarizing vehicle had as many fans as haters: By February 2020, Tesla had cashed 535,000 Cybertruck deposits.
Consumers understand that all companies are suffering Covid-related setbacks. But as 2021 begins, even the most die-hard Tesla cultists are looking to their charismatic leader for his revised timeline.
Musk has admitted full volume Cybertruck production won't begin until sometime in 2022. With further delays due to its safety certification likely, it will be years before Tesla fulfills its half-a-million preorders and begins selling Cybertrucks to the rest of us.
Full-Scale Production Pushed To 2022 Or Beyond
During the events of 2020, Tesla offered no amendments to its Cybertruck production schedule. Sometime in early 2021, Tesla quietly changed the Cybertruck website: instead of listing all its trucks as 2021 models, it now shows the base-model (single motor, RWD) Cybertruck as a 2022 vehicle.
Then on January 20th, 2021, Elon Musk made his quarterly investor call. He kept an upbeat tone for the entire phone meeting, making some wildly ambitious claims. Musk predicted Tesla would leap from Level 3 self-driving cars past Level 4, and to Level 5 (vehicles that require no human interaction)--during 2021. But when asked about Cybertruck production, Musk admitted manufacturing was not ready. He told his investors that he still needed to order some of the equipment required to assemble the truck. He said he expected to build "some" trucks in 2021. But he also admitted full "volume production" wouldn't begin before 2022.
Elon Musk Claims The Truck Design Is "Fixed"
During Musk's January investor meeting, he said of the Cybertruck, "We've got the designs fixed." You can read more about the meeting on The Roadshow.
Many of the ways the Cybertruck must transform are beyond Tesla's control. When we see a street-legal Cybertruck enter the U.S. market, it will have the windshield wipers, rearview mirrors, and round steering wheel that the prototype did not. But a safety-certified Cybertruck will have to undergo more significant redesigns as well.
The Cybertruck Requires Major Safety Certification Changes
Modern cars are designed not only for passenger and driver safety but for the safety of pedestrians as well. The front surface of cars must absorb some impact if it strikes a pedestrian, and its shape must be rounded so as not to cause unnecessary injury. This is the main reason pop-up headlights have gone the way of the Dodo.
After a self-driving Model X struck and killed a pedestrian in 2018, one would expect Tesla to take the lead on pedestrian safety. Unfortunately, the angular, unyielding front-end of the Cybertruck is especially dangerous to pedestrians.
In many ways, the European vehicle safety standards are more forward-looking than their U.S. counterparts. For instance, Tesla replacing mirrors with rearview cameras is not yet legal in the U.S., but A-OK across the pond. But when it comes to pedestrian safety, the European Union is much stricter than the U.S. For this reason, experts have said the Cybertruck won't get certified in Europe.
Curiously, the usually-savvy Tesla CEO seems to misunderstand the reasons for his Cybertruck's Old World troubles. When Musk was asked about his electric truck's European safety certification, he assured his European customers that they would see a Cybertruck delivery. He added that he would build a smaller model for the overseas market. But if a tiny Miata MX-5 NA with angular pop-up lights would be illegal to engineer for the modern market, even a downsized Cybertruck can't get certified until Musk changes its front clip's construction and shape.
It is safe to assume that Musk's recently "fixed" design does not take these safety standards into consideration. The European-market 2021/2022 Cybertruck will require at least one more major redesign before it lands in your driveway.
Conclusion
So far, the players in the electric truck market have consistently overpromised and underdelivered. This pattern may be the price of such extreme innovation, but it obscures who will be first to market.
With Tesla's experience launching several vehicle models, it would be easy to declare them the frontrunner. But the Cybertruck's dramatic design and uncompromising engineering will likely cost Tesla valuable months or years: Elon Musk must tool up his Texas "Giga" factory with completely unprecedented manufacturing methods, and make certain that the resulting assembly line doesn't dictate another Cybertruck redesign. Then he must navigate the crash test and safety standards in multiple markets with an extreme new vehicle. Rivian, by contrast, has been fine-tuning the more conservative R1T for five years. Musk's 2022 full volume production estimate may be more optimistic than any Tesla claim he's made to date.
Yet, we are cheering for the Cybertruck. In a world increasingly sterilized of all things brash, this bold design deserves a standing ovation. Whether you love or hate this specific truck, car companies brave enough to polarize their audience turn out fantastic vehicles--now and forever.
Automotive enthusiasts must champion car culture if it is to survive. Electric drivetrains and autopilot will shape most coming vehicles. But the future can still be fun. There will always be a place in the market for exhilarating sports cars, colorful customs, and even this dystopian juggernaut--the Cybertruck.
Sources: Forbes, CNET, and Tesla